Cambridge Centre for Modelling Solutions to the Impact of COVID-19 on Cardiovascular Waiting Lists – Virtual Study Group
Newton Gateway to Mathematics event
This three-day virtual study group will explore the challenges related to the delays in seeking and gaining access to cardiovascular treatments caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact this will have upon waiting lists.
Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death for men in the UK and the second most for women. During the first lockdown from March 2020, elective cardiac procedures and many outpatient consultations were postponed and a substantial number of appointments have not yet been rescheduled. In addition, those who were suffering from heart conditions did not present to their GP or hospital. Clinicians have been able to report what has been happening with respect to the reduction in emergency cardiac admissions and procedures, as well as quantify the excess deaths from emergency cardiac conditions. They have not quantified the impact on outpatient consultations.
It would be helpful to form a predictive model of the outcome of different strategies for recovery of the backlog in cardiac procedures and outpatient consultations, noting that a number of competing elements are at play including incident cases, prevalent cases, delayed cases, abandonment from changes in disease and deaths, as well as the capacity and capability of NHS services to respond.
The study group will focus on applying mathematical tools and models to various issues linked to these complex challenges. It is proposed that issues will be explored related to:
- The overarching state of the delivery of elective cardiovascular procedures and outpatient consultations.
- An exemplar condition - Aortic Stenosis – for which there is a particularly well-defined data set.
- An exemplar condition – chronic heart failure - treatment regimens for which are less well-defined.
The Programme is being finalised and the event is likely to run from 09.30 – 17.30 each day. Times for group discussions and breaks will be scheduled in. The event will be run through Zoom.
We anticipate there could be high demand to attend, so we are asking that those who are interested in attending submit an expression of interest and attendance will be confirmed as soon as possible.